Jamaica
News - Real Estate - General (Sept 16, 2004)
Ivan's damage and costs
It was in the throes of Hurricane Ivan
when my mind was concentrating on natural disasters and how these had affected
Jamaica's prospects in recent times that I realised how many episodes we have
suffered over the last 25 years, going back to the flood rains in western
Jamaica in 1979. It was, therefore, not surprising that on hearing of the damage
done after Ivan's departure, I had a feeling of déjà vu.
Not many of us will remember that apart from
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, we have had hurricane damage from Allen and David, as
well as the flood rains of 1986, 1998, 2001 and 2002. We should also not forget
the devastating drought of 1997 from which our agricultural sector, and
especially domestic food crop production, has not recovered.
The damage this time around, though apparently
less widespread than that caused by Hurricane Gilbert, is particularly heavy in
the southern and north-western sections of the island, and it will take a major
national effort to deal with the relief operations and to carry out the
reconstruction.
Were it not for the high level of hurricane
preparation on all fronts, the vast improvements made to our infrastructure in
the post-Gilbert era, and the higher standards observed in the residential
sectors, particularly in the Corporate Area, our situation would now be far more
desperate.
The telecommunications infrastructure has been
proven to be at First World standards, especially the landline system. It made
adequate preparation and response after the hurricane more rapid, and contact
with the outside world has been unbroken. Those of us with weak nerves were able
to ease the stress by maintaining telephone contact, and others were in a
position to track the precise location of the hurricane, hour by hour.
In this regard, there seems to be the need for
upgrading our technological apparatus for tracking hurricanes, as the official
reports of Ivan's movement were hours behind what private individuals were able
to monitor on the Internet via their laptops.
Though the electricity system has seen its own
substantial improvements since Hurricane Gilbert, which made possible a lesser
extent of damage to pole lines and the distribution network, one lesson is that
we should be looking over the long term to put that network underground. This
could be thought of as a 10-15 year development programme, but starting with new
townships, settlements and resort and industrial sites.
It is natural that key decision-makers in the
private economy and the international financial community will want an early
assessment of the impact on the country's economic programme. There will be some
obvious negative consequences in terms of export activity in the short term,
although the damage to Alpart's port was not as severe as was first reported.
The agricultural sector will, however, suffer the most severe fall in
production. With effective action, even this sector can bounce back strongly
within a reasonable time frame.
The cost to repair road infrastructure, and
particularly damage to the housing stock, will be substantial. Though insurance
flows will help to cushion the bill for repairing the housing stock, people
without insurance will be badly hurt.
There will also be pressure on the capital
budget of the Government and some tough choices will have to be made, even
considering a reasonable level of international assistance for the
reconstruction programme.
There will, however, be an increased impetus to
the construction sector from the reconstruction programme and, with minimum
delay to the major investment projects, we could see double-digit growth in
activities in the sector. We must handle this situation with care in order to
avoid the inflationary pressures that were seen after Hurricane Gilbert.
Adequate supplies of imported construction
materials and mobilisation of skilled workers are critical ingredients in
ensuring smooth functioning of the sector. Technical assistance will also be
important for low-income groups who need to repair or re-establish their
dwellings.
Fortunately the country now has healthy supplies
of all essential goods, including petroleum products, food and medicine, and the
state of our international reserves and the more efficient distribution system
will ensure that there are no shortages and supply bottlenecks, as was the case
after Hurricane Gilbert.
The fact that the Caribbean and Florida are
being subject to hurricanes of such strength and so frequently cannot be seen
outside of the context of what is happening to the environment. After the uproar
about El Nino in the 1990s, international sensitivity to the global environment
has not been as evident, but unilateral action by the United States in pulling
out of the Kyoto Treaty is regrettable.
Ironically, Florida is facing the prospect of
being hit by three powerful hurricanes within the space of a month. It could be
that Floridians may begin to ask why it is they are having to suffer so greatly.
This is a subject that must also be seriously analysed by people in the
Caribbean who are far less able to recover from the devastation caused by
hurricanes.
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